Details about John Fernald

Access statistics for papers by John Fernald.

Last updated 2013-01-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfe43

Working Papers

2012

1. A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
2. Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2011

3. What Happens when Technology Improves?
   2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2010

4. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (1)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (1)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) View citations (3)
   2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2006) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2011)

2009

5. What do we know and not know about potential output?
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article in Review (2009)

2008

6. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2004) View citations (5)
   See also Chapter (2009)

2006

7. Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (10)
8. Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
   See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2008)
9. Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations (5)

2005

10. New Evidence on Durable Goods Biased Technological Change
    2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2004)

2004

11. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (87)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2004) View citations (47)
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research (2002) View citations (64)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (68)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
12. Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (20)

2003

13. China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (28)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) View citations (36)
14. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (27)
15. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations (22)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) View citations (44)

2001

16. Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (26)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2001) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)

2000

17. Puzzles in the Chinese stock market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2002)
18. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations (53)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2000) View citations (16)
    See also Chapter (2001)

1999

19. Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (23)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1995)
20. Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)

1998

21. Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (25)

1997

22. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2002)
23. Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1999)

1996

24. Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (126)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1997)

1995

25. Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (22)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations (28)

1994

26. Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (31)
    Also in Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (27)

Journal Articles

2011

1. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 29-74 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2010)
2. What is the value of bank output?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (May 16) View citations (1)

2009

3. Growth accounting, potential output, and the current recession
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (Aug 17)
4. What do we know (and not know) about potential output?
   Review, 2009, (Jul), 187-214 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

5. Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data
   Economic Review, 2008, 1-15
   Also in German Economic Review, 2007, 8, 146-173 (2007) View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

6. Financial innovations and the real economy: conference summary
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (Mar 2)
7. Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2467-2485 View citations (23)
8. Will fast productivity growth persist?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (Apr 6) View citations (3)

2006

9. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
   American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (5), 1418-1448 View citations (98)
   See also Working Paper (2004)
10. Is a recession imminent?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (Nov 24)

2005

11. Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (Dec 9)
12. Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (Nov 18) View citations (2)

2004

13. Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2004, (Mar) View citations (3)
14. The acceleration in U.S. total productivity after 1995: the role of information technology
    Economic Perspectives, 2004, (Q I), 52-67

2003

15. Information technology and the U.S. productivity acceleration
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2003, (Sep)

2002

16. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (6), 963-991 View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
17. Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84, (3), 416-432 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

18. Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?
    Economic Perspectives, 2001, (Q IV), 38-52 View citations (4)
19. Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 117-165 View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
20. The fall and rise of the global economy
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2001, (Apr)

1999

21. Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity
    American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (3), 619-638 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
22. Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 515-535 View citations (34)

1997

23. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
    Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105, (2), 249-83 View citations (397)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1995

24. Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (1), 165-188 View citations (130)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

Chapters

2009

1. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
   A chapter in Price Index Concepts and Measurement, 2009, pp 273-320 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2008)

2004

2. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States But Not in the United Kingdom?
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, 2004, pp 9-82 View citations (13)

2001

3. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
   A chapter in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, 2001, pp 225-302 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2000)