Details about John Fernald

Access statistics for papers by John Fernald.

Last updated 2009-09-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfe43

Working Papers

2009

1. What do we know and not know about potential output?
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   See also Journal Article in Review (2009)

2008

2. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2004) View citations

2006

3. Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations
4. Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations
   See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2008)
5. Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience
   2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations
6. Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations

2005

7. New Evidence on Durable Goods Biased Technological Change
   2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
   Also in 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2004)

2004

8. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2004) View citations
   Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research (2002) View citations
   International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations
   See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
9. Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks
   2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations

2003

10. China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) View citations
11. Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations
12. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
13. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) View citations

2001

14. Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2001) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)

2000

15. Puzzles in the Chinese stock market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2002)
16. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2000) View citations
    See also Chapter (2001)

1999

17. Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) View citations
    Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1995)
18. Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations

1998

19. Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations

1997

20. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2002)
21. Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1999)

1996

22. Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1997)

1995

23. Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations

1994

24. Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations
    Also in Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations

Journal Articles

2009

1. Growth accounting, potential output, and the current recession
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (Aug 17)
2. What do we know (and not know) about potential output?
   Review, 2009, (Jul), 187-214
   See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

3. Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data
   Economic Review, 2008, 1-15
   Also in German Economic Review, 2007, 8, 146-173 (2007) View citations
   See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

4. Financial innovations and the real economy: conference summary
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (Mar 2)
5. Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2467-2485 View citations
6. Will fast productivity growth persist?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (Apr 6) View citations

2006

7. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
   American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (5), 1418-1448 View citations
   See also Working Paper (2004)
8. Is a recession imminent?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (Nov 24)

2005

9. Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (Dec 9)
10. Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (Nov 18) View citations

2004

11. Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2004, (Mar) View citations
12. The acceleration in U.S. total productivity after 1995: the role of information technology
    Economic Perspectives, 2004, (Q I), 52-67 View citations

2003

13. Information technology and the U.S. productivity acceleration
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2003, (Sep)

2002

14. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (6), 963-991 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1997)
15. Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84, (3), 416-432 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

16. Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?
    Economic Perspectives, 2001, (Q IV), 38-52 View citations
17. Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 117-165 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2001)
18. The fall and rise of the global economy
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2001, (Apr)

1999

19. Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity
    American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (3), 619-638 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1997)
20. Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 515-535 View citations

1997

21. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
    Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105, (2), 249-83 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1995

22. Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (1), 165-188 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1999)

Chapters

2004

1. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States But Not in the United Kingdom?
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, 2004, pp 9-82 View citations

2001

2. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
   A chapter in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, 2001, pp 225-302 View citations
   See also Working Paper (2000)