Details about Daniel Thornton

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Homepage:	http://www.stls.frb.org
Workplace:	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC) Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Daniel Thornton.

Last updated 2009-11-20. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pth2

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Working Papers

2009

1. How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2. Resolving the unbiasedness puzzle in the foreign exchange market
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3. Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4. The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2008

5. Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6. Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
   Working Paper Series, European Central Bank
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations
7. The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects
   Working Paper Series, European Central Bank
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations
8. The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

2007

9. Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
10. The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Economics (2008)

2006

11. The daily liquidity effect
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

2005

12. A new federal funds rate target series: September 27, 1982, - December 31, 1993
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
13. Open market operations and the federal funds rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Review (2007)
14. The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
    Working Papers, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre View citations
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2005) View citations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2007)
15. When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

2004

16. A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News
    LEM Papers Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)
17. Federal Funds Rate Prediction
    Working Papers, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre View citations
    Also in Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003, Royal Economic Society (2003)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2004) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2005)
18. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2006)
19. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2005)

2003

20. A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2004)
21. Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2004)
22. Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Manchester School (2003)
23. Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Monetary and Economic Studies (2004)
24. The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Review (2004)

2002

25. The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2002) View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2003)
26. What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2007)

2000

27. The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2000) View citations

1998

28. Lifting the veil of secrecy from monetary policy: evidence from the Fed's early discount rate policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2000)
29. The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2001)

1997

30. Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

1996

31. Discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve Chairmen
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
32. Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
33. The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

1994

34. Asymmetry in the prime rate and firms' preference for internal finance
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1992

35. The market's reaction to discount changes: what's behind the announcement effect?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
36. Why do T-bill rates react to discount rate changes?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (1994)

1988

37. Should consumer expenditures be the scale variable in empirical money demand equations?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
38. Why do market interest rates respond to money announcements?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1987

39. Unanticipated money and the anticipated liquidity effect: some further evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1985

40. Weighted monetary aggregates as intermediate targets
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1984

41. A note on the relative efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt and OLS estimators when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
42. Lag length selection and Granger causality
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
43. On the treatment of the weighted initial observation in the AR(1) regression model
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
44. Price expectations and the demand for money: a comment
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1986)
45. Tests of price sluggishness in the U.K
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
46. What do Almon's endpoint constraints constrain?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations

1983

47. Complete results for lag length selection
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
48. Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (1984)
49. Endpoint constraints and the St. Louis equation: a clarification
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
50. Lag-length selection criteria: empirical results from the St. Louis equation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations
51. The Andersen-Jordan equation, revisited
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (1985)
52. The appropriate autocorrelation transformation when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53. The appropriate interest rate and scale variable in money demand: results from non-nested tests
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics (1985)
54. The real-balance effect with resource-using money: a capital-theoretic interpretation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1982

55. The budget constraint, endogenous money and the relative importance of fiscal policy under alternative financing schemes
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Journal Articles

2009

1. A perspective on the current recession: it's not the "worst case" yet
   Economic Synopses, 2009
2. Is there less agreement about inflation?
   Monetary Trends, 2009, (Jan)
3. Negating the inflation potential of the Fed's lending programs
   Economic Synopses, 2009
4. The Fed, liquidity, and credit allocation
   Review, 2009, (Jan), 13-22
5. The effect of the Fed’s purchase of long-term treasuries on the yield curve
   Economic Synopses, 2009
6. What caused long-term rates to rise?
   Economic Synopses, 2009
7. What the Libor-OIS spread says
   Economic Synopses, 2009
8. Would quantitative easing sooner have tempered the financial crisis and economic recession?
   Economic Synopses, 2009

2008

9. A primer on the mortgage market and mortgage finance
   Review, 2008, (Jan), 31-46 View citations
10. Housing and the "R" word
    National Economic Trends, 2008, (Feb)
11. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2008, 89, (1), 158-174 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2007)
12. Walter Bagehot, the discount window, and TAF
    Economic Synopses, 2008

2007

13. Measure for measure: headline versus core inflation
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Sep)
14. Open market operations and the federal funds rate
    Review, 2007, (Nov), 549-570 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2005)
15. Subprime side effects in the federal funds market
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Oct)
16. The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
    Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2007, 42, (01), 81-100 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2005)
17. The federal funds and long-term rates
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (May)
18. The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective
    Review, 2007, (May), 183-194 View citations
19. What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from a Spectral Perspective
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 69, (2), 293-319
    See also Working Paper (2002)

2006

20. "Measured pace" in the conduct of monetary policy
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Mar)
21. Greenspan's unconventional view of the long-run inflation/output trade-off
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Jan) View citations
22. Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006, 38, (2), 511-542 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2004)
23. The Fed's inflation objective
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Jul) View citations

2005

24. Federal Funds Rate Prediction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (3), 449-71 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2004)
25. Social security, saving, and wealth accumulation
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (May)
26. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2005, 29, (10), 2541-2556 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2004)
27. The monetary policy transmission mechanism?
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Sep)

2004

28. A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2004, 28, (12), 3055-3068 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2003)
29. Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
    Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 23, (5), 357-371
    See also Working Paper (2003)
30. Making monetary policy more transparent
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Jan)
31. Public officials and job creation
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Sep)
32. Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 2004, 22, (2), 45-69
    Also in Review, 2004, (Sep), 21-40 (2004) View citations
    See also Working Paper (2003)
33. The FOMC’s “considerable period”
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Feb) View citations
34. The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2004, 28, (3), 475-498 View citations
35. The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
    Review, 2004, (Jan), 49-60 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2003

36. Alternative policy weapons?
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Aug)
37. How effective is monetary policy?
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Jan)
38. Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
    Manchester School, 2003, 71, (5), 478-497 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2003)
39. Predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Jul)
40. The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2003, 27, (6), 1079-1110 View citations
    See also Working Paper (2002)

2002

41. Does a mild recession imply a weak recovery?
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Apr)
42. Market anticipations of monetary policy actions
    Review, 2002, (Jul), 65-94 View citations
43. The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions
    Review, 2002, (Sep), 37-50 View citations
44. Withering dissents
    Monetary Trends, 2002, (Aug)

2001

45. Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency
    Review, 2001, (Jul), 59-82 View citations
46. Interest rate targets abandoned
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Jun)
47. The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2001, 25, (9), 1717-1739 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1998)
48. The codification of an FOMC procedure
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Mar)
49. The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
    Review, 2001, (Mar), 11-24 View citations
50. The monetary/fiscal policy debate: a controlled experiment
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Oct)
51. What accounts for the reduced frequency of Fed actions?
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Apr)

2000

52. A history of the asymmetric policy directive
    Review, 2000, (Sep), 1-16 View citations
53. An experiment is underway
    Monetary Trends, 2000, (Feb)
54. Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (2), 155-67 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1998)
55. Money in a theory of exchange
    Review, 2000, (Jan), 35-60 View citations
56. The exceptional 1990s
    National Economic Trends, 2000, (Mar)
57. The golden dollar: the early evidence
    Monetary Trends, 2000, (Dec)

1999

58. Nominal interest rates: less than zero?
    Monetary Trends, 1999, (Jan) View citations
59. The funds rate target and interest rates
    Monetary Trends, 1999, (Sep)

1998

60. Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes
    Review, 1998, (Nov), 25-36 View citations
61. The importance of an asymmetric directive
    Monetary Trends, 1998, (Aug)

1997

62. Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions
    Review, 1997, (Nov), 45-53 View citations

1996

63. Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?
    Review, 1996, (Nov), 77-88 View citations
64. The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule
    Review, 1996, (Mar), 23-38 View citations

1995

65. Channels of monetary policy. Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference held October 20-21, 1994
    Proceedings, 1995, (May)
66. Channels of monetary policy: conference introduction
    Proceedings, 1995, (May), vii - xii
67. Is there a case for "moderate" inflation?
    Review, 1995, (Jul), 27-38 View citations
68. The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (3), 838-47 View citations

1994

69. Financial innovation, deregulation and the "credit view" of monetary policy
    Review, 1994, (Jan), 31-49 View citations
70. Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1994, 26, (4), 839-50 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1992)

1992

71. An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates
    Review, 1992, (Nov), 35-52 View citations
72. Targeting M2: the issue of monetary control
    Review, 1992, (Jul), 23-35 View citations

1991

73. A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income
    Review, 1991, (Mar), 58-78 View citations
74. Alternative measures of the monetary base: what are the differences and are they important?
    Review, 1991, (Nov), 19-35 View citations
75. The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note
    Review, 1991, (Jul), 47-64 View citations

1990

76. Comments on "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: Buffer stock and error correction approaches"
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1990, 12, (2), 463-467
77. Do government deficits matter?
    Review, 1990, (Sep), 25-39

1989

78. Tests of covered interest rate parity
    Review, 1989, (Jul), 55-66 View citations
79. The effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1989, 8, (4), 573-587 View citations
80. The link between M1 and the monetary base in the 198O's
    Review, 1989, (Sep), 35-52

1988

81. On the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1988, 7, (3), 321-330 View citations
82. The borrowed-reserves operating procedures: theory and evidence
    Review, 1988, (Jan), 30-54 View citations
83. The effect of monetary policy on short-term interest rates
    Review, 1988, (May), 53-72 View citations
84. The macroeconomic effects of deficit spending: a review
    Review, 1988, (Nov), 48-60

1987

85. A note on the efficiency of the cochrane-orcutt estimator of the ar(1) regression model
    Journal of Econometrics, 1987, 36, (3), 369-376
86. Solving the 1980s' velocity puzzle: a progress report
    Review, 1987, (Aug), 5-23

1986

87. Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1986, 68, (3), 539-42 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1984)
88. The cost of checkable deposits in the United States
    Review, 1986, (Apr), 19-27 View citations
89. The discount rate and market interest rates: theory and evidence
    Review, 1986, (Aug), 5-21
90. The monetary-fiscal policy debate and the Andersen-Jordan equation
    Review, 1986, (Oct), 9-17

1985

91. Are weighted monetary aggregates better than simple-sum M1?
    Review, 1985, (Jun), 29-40 View citations
92. Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1985, 17, (2), 164-78 View citations
93. Monetary anticipations and the demand for money: Reply to MacKinnon and Milbourne
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1985, 16, (2), 251-257 View citations
94. Money demand dynamics: some new evidence
    Review, 1985, (Mar), 14-23 View citations
95. The Andersen-Jordan equation revisited
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1985, 7, (3), 419-432
    See also Working Paper (1983)
96. The Appropriate Interest Race and Scale Variable in Money Demand: Results from Non-nested Tests
    Applied Economics, 1985, 17, (4), 735-44
    See also Working Paper (1983)
97. The discount rate, interest rates and foreign exchange rates: an analysis with daily data
    Review, 1985, (Feb), 22-30 View citations

1984

98. An early look at the volatility of money and interest rates under CRR
    Review, 1984, (Oct), 26-32
99. Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1984, 3, (3), 279-292 View citations
    See also Working Paper (1983)
100. How robust are the policy conclusions of the St. Louis equation?: some further evidence
     Review, 1984, (Jun) View citations
101. Monetizing the debt
     Review, 1984, (Dec), 30-43
102. The government budget constraint with endogenous money
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1984, 6, (1), 57-67 View citations

1983

103. Lagged and contemporaneous reserve accounting: an alternative view
     Review, 1983, (Nov), 26-33
104. M1 or M2: which is the better monetary target?
     Review, 1983, (Jun), 36-42 View citations
105. Money, net wealth, and the real-balance effect
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1983, 5, (1), 105-117
106. Polynomial distributed lags and the estimation of the St. Louis equation
     Review, 1983, (Apr), 13-25 View citations
107. The FOMC in 1982: de-emphasizing M1
     Review, 1983, (Jun), 26-35
108. Why does velocity matter?
     Review, 1983, (Dec), 5-13 View citations

1982

109. Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial Adjustment-Adaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, 64, (2), 325-29
110. Simple analytics of the money supply process and monetary control
     Review, 1982, (Oct), 22-39 View citations
111. The FOMC in 1981: monetary control in a changing financial environment
     Review, 1982, (Apr), 3-22
112. The discount rate and market interest rates: what's the connection?
     Review, 1982, (Jun), 3-14 View citations

1980

113. The empirical significance of the real balance effect
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1980, 2, (3), 213-232