Details about Rafał Weron
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Last updated 2013-05-18. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pwe42
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Working Papers
2013
- Diffusion of innovation within an agent-based model: Spinsons, independence and advertising
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Going green: Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of dynamic electricity tariffs
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2012
- A new method for automated noise cancellation in electromagnetic field measurement
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
- Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (1)
- Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology 
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
- The relationship between spot and futures CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU-ETS
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2011
- Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology 
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2011)  Papers, arXiv.org (2011)
- Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (6)
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis (2012)
- Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (2)
2010
- An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models or electricity spot prices
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (11)
See also Journal Article in Energy Economics (2010)
- Building Loss Models
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (9)
Also in HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology (2010) View citations (1)
- Correction to: "On the Chambers–Mallows–Stuck Method for Simulating Skewed Stable Random Variables"
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
Also in HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology (1996) View citations (3)
- FX Smile in the Heston Model
Papers, arXiv.org 
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (12) HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology (2010) View citations (5) SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 (2010) View citations (3)
- Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Loss Distributions
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (8)
- Modeling electricity spot prices: Regime switching models with price-capped spike distributions
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
- Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology 
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2010) View citations (10) SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 (2010) View citations (3)
- Simulation of Risk Processes
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (8)
Also in Papers, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE) (2004) View citations (7)
2009
- Discounting of delayed payoffs (Rzecz o dyskontowaniu odroczonych wyplat)
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
- Regime-switching models for electricity spot prices: Introducing heteroskedastic base regime dynamics and shifted spike distributions
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
2008
- A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
Also in SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 (2008) View citations (4)
- Bezpieczeństwo elektroenergetyczne: Ryzyko > Zarządzanie ryzykiem > Bezpieczeństwo
(Power security: Risk > Risk management > Security)
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
- Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2008)
- Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (11)
- Outflow Dynamics in Modeling Oligopoly Markets: The Case of the Mobile Telecommunications Market in Poland
Papers, arXiv.org 
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2008)
2007
- Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better than their Gaussian counterparts?
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
- Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (12)
2006
- Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts
SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 View citations (17)
- Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (1)
- Point and interval forecasting of wholesale electricity prices: Evidence from the Nord Pool market
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
- Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (2)
- Visualization tools for insurance risk processes
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (3)
2005
- Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
Risk and Insurance, EconWPA
- FORECASTING SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICES WITH TIME SERIES MODELS
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (3)
- Heavy tails and electricity prices
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (3)
- Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (1)
- Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (13)
- Modeling catastrophe claims with left-truncated severity distributions (extended version)
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (1)
Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005)
- Modeling electricity prices with regime switching models
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (12)
- Modeling the risk process in the XploRe computing environment
Risk and Insurance, EconWPA 
Also in Papers, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE) (2004)
- On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2004)
- Stable Distributions
SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649 View citations (14)
2004
- Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations
Papers, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE) View citations (11)
- Power markets in Poland and worldwide (Rynki energii elektrycznej w Polsce i na swiecie)
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Principal Components Analysis in implied volatility modeling (Analiza skladowych glownych w modelowaniu implikowanej zmiennosci)
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Structure and stylized facts of a deregulated power market
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
2003
- An introduction to simulation of risk processes
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (3)
- How effective is advertising in duopoly markets?
Public Economics, EconWPA View citations (1)
Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2002) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2003)
- Levy-stable distributions revisited: tail index > 2 does not exclude the Levy-stable regime
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (10)
Also in HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology (2001) View citations (2)
- Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (15)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2004)
- Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market
Econometrics, EconWPA View citations (12)
2002
- Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (5)
- Origins of scaling in FX markets
MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
- Pricing European options on instruments with a constant dividend yield: The randomized discrete-time approach
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2001
- A simple model of price formation
Papers, arXiv.org View citations (3)
- Estimating long range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (8)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2002)
- Measuring long-range dependence in electricity prices
Papers, arXiv.org View citations (3)
2000
- Energy price risk management
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2000)
- Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (10)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2000)
- Property insurance loss distributions
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2000)
1999
- A short history of the VOLAX - or how we tried to trade implied volatility (Krotka historia VOLAX-u - czyli jak probowano handlowac implikowana zmiennoscia)
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
1998
- Origins of the scaling behaviour in the dynamics of financial data
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (1999)
- Scaling in currency exchange: A Conditionally Exponential Decay approach
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (1)
1997
- Evolution in a changing environment
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
1995
- Analysis of ROBECO data by neural networks
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- Performance of the estimators of stable law parameters
HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (1)
Journal Articles
2012
- Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2012, 96, (3), 385-407 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2011)
2010
- An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices
Energy Economics, 2010, 32, (5), 1059-1073 View citations (10)
See also Working Paper (2010)
2008
- Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models
International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, 24, (4), 744-763 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures
Energy Economics, 2008, 30, (3), 1098-1115 View citations (15)
2006
- Modelling catastrophe claims with left-truncated severity distributions
Computational Statistics, 2006, 21, (3), 537-555 View citations (3)
- Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2006, 10, (3), 2 View citations (17)
2004
- Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 336, (1), 39-48 View citations (15)
See also Working Paper (2003)
- On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 336, (1), 196-205 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2005)
2003
- How effective is advertising in duopoly markets?
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2003, 324, (1), 437-444 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2003)
2002
- Estimating long-range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2002, 312, (1), 285-299 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2001)
2001
- A new model of mass extinctions
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2001, 293, (3), 559-565
- Modeling electricity loads in California: a continuous-time approach
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2001, 299, (1), 344-350 View citations (6)
2000
- Energy price risk management
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2000, 285, (1), 127-134 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2000)
- Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2000, 283, (3), 462-468 View citations (8)
See also Working Paper (2000)
- Property insurance loss distributions
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2000, 287, (1), 269-278 View citations (11)
See also Working Paper (2000)
1999
- A conditionally exponential decay approach to scaling in finance
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 1999, 264, (3), 551-561 View citations (1)
- Origins of the scaling behaviour in the dynamics of financial data
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 1999, 264, (3), 562-569 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (1998)
1996
- On the Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating skewed stable random variables
Statistics & Probability Letters, 1996, 28, (2), 165-171 View citations (18)
Books
2006
- Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach
HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (46)
2000
- Power Exchange: Risk management strategies (Gielda Energii: Strategie zarzadzania ryzykiem)
HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
1998
- Financial Engineering: Derivatives pricing, Computer simulations, Market statistics (Inzynieria finansowa: Wycena instrumentow pochodnych, Symulacje komputerowe, Statystyka rynku)
HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
Edited books
2011
- Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance (2nd edition)
HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2005
- Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance
HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology View citations (31)
Software Items
2013
- LTSCSIMPLE: MATLAB function to estimate and forecast the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of an electricity spot price series using simple methods
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- LTSCSIN: MATLAB function to estimate and forecast the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of an electricity spot price series using sine-based methods
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- LTSCWAVE: MATLAB function to estimate and forecast the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of an electricity spot price series using wavelet-based methods
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- LTSC_EXAMPLE: MATLAB example script and data for "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices"
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- The World According to Spinson (WAS): Standalone application for simulating agent-based models
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2012
- CI_POWERTAIL: MATLAB function to test for 'dragon kings' vs. 'black swans'
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- CI_WEIBULLTAIL: MATLAB function to test for 'dragon kings' in Weibull-type tails
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- E_HMM: MATLAB function to calculate Electromagnetic Field (EMF) intensity using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filter
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- RUNNINGMEDIAN: MATLAB function to compute a running median of a time series
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2011
- DFA: MATLAB function to compute the Hurst exponent using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA)
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- GPH: MATLAB function to estimate the Hurst exponent using the Geweke-Porter-Hudak (1983) spectral estimator (periodogram regression method)
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- HURST: MATLAB function to compute the Hurst exponent using R/S Analysis
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS2IR_EST: MATLAB function to estimate parameters of a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 2 independent regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS2IR_SIM: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 2 independent regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS2_PLOT: MATLAB function to plot calibration results for a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 2 regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS3IR_EST: MATLAB function to estimate parameters of a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 3 independent regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS3IR_SIM: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 3 independent regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MRS3_PLOT: MATLAB function to plot calibration results for a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model with 3 regimes
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- PS2R_EST: MATLAB function to estimate parameters of a 2-regime parameter switching (PS) model
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- PS2R_SIM: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of a 2-regime parameter switching (PS) model
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2010
- DESEASONALIZE: MATLAB function to remove short and long term seasonal components
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- GARMANKOHLHAGEN: MATLAB function to evaluate European FX option prices in the Garman and Kohlhagen (1983) model
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- HESTONFFTVANILLA: MATLAB function to evaluate European FX option prices in the Heston (1993) model using the FFT approach of Carr and Madan (1999)
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- HESTONVANILLA: MATLAB function to evaluate European FX option prices in the Heston (1993) model
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- HESTONVANILLAFITSMILE: MATLAB function to fit the Heston (1993) option pricing model to the FX market implied volatility smile
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- HESTONVANILLALIPTON: MATLAB function to evaluate European FX option prices in the Heston (1993) model using the approach of Lipton (2002)
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- HESTONVANILLASMILE: MATLAB function to compute the volatility smile implied by the Heston (1993) option pricing model
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- MRJD_MLE: MATLAB function to estimate parameters of a Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion (MRJD) process using maximum likelihood
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- MRJD_PRED: MATLAB function to make a one-step ahead prediction of a Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion (MRJD) process
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- MRJD_SIM: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of a Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion (MRJD) process
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- PDFHESTON: MATLAB function to evaluate the probability density function in the Heston (1993) model
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- REMST: MATLAB function to remove trend and seasonal component using the moving average method
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- SIMGBM: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology 
Also in Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics (2010)
- SIMHESTON: MATLAB function to simulate trajectories of the spot price and volatility processes in the Heston (1993) model
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STABLECULL: MATLAB function to estimate stable distribution parameters using the quantile method of McCulloch
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STABLEPDF_FFT: MATLAB function to compute the stable distribution probability density function (pdf) via FFT
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STABLEREG: MATLAB function to estimate stable distribution parameters using the regression method of Koutrouvelis
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STABLEREGKW: MATLAB function to estimate stable distribution parameters using the regression method of Kogon and Williams
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STABLERND: MATLAB function to generate random numbers from the stable distribution
Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
- STF2HES: MATLAB functions for "FX smile in the Heston model"
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- STF2HES_EX: MATLAB example scripts for "FX smile in the Heston model"
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2008
- COR: MATLAB function to compute the correlation coefficients
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2007
- CHRISTOF: MATLAB function to perform Christoffersen's (1998) tests of coverage
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- MFE Toolbox ver. 1.0.1 for MATLAB
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
2006
- PERIODOG: MATLAB function to compute and plot the periodogram of a time series
HSC Software, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
Editor
- HSC Research Reports
Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
- HSC Software
Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology
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