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Details about John C. Williams

E-mail:
Homepage:http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economists/john-williams/
Phone:(415) 974-2121
Postal address:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Executive Offices 101 Market Street San Francisco, CA 94105
Workplace:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)
Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John C. Williams.

Last updated 2017-04-23. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pwi23


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Working Papers

2017

  1. From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes. Speech to the Forecasters Club, New York, New York, March 29, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  2. Keeping the Recovery Sustainable: The Essential Role of an Independent Fed. Speech to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce, Santa Cruz, California, February 28, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  3. Looking Back, Looking Ahead
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2017)
  4. Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks & Strategies in a Low R-Star World
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  5. The Jenga Tower of Prosperity: The Strong, Prosperous, And Resilient Communities Challenge (SPARCC). Speech to the SPARCC National Launch Event, New York, New York, March 30, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2016

  1. After the first rate hike
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
  2. Assessing the New Normal(s). Speech to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco’s 2016 Member Conference, San Francisco, California, October 21, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  3. Discussion of “Language after liftoff: Fed communication away from the zero lower bound”
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  4. Diversity and Inclusion without Excuses. Speech at the Conference on “Improving Diversity in the Financial Services Industry: A Holistic View”, Rutgers University, Newark Campus, Newark, New Jersey, October 19, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  5. Fintech: the power of the possible and potential pitfalls. Speech at the LendIt USA 2016 conference, San Francisco, California, April 12, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  6. Longview: The Economic Outlook. Speech to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska, August 18, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  7. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads View citations (15)
  8. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Chapter (2016)
  9. Now that Winter is over, springtime is on my mind. Speech to the Sacramento Economic Forum, Sacramento, California, May 13, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  10. Rules of engagement
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
  11. The health of nations
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  12. The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
  13. Trick of the light? The U.S. economy, global growth, and international risks in perspective. A speech at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and U.S. Embassy Speaker Series, Singapore, Singapore, March 29, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  14. Whither Inflation Targeting? Speech to the Hayek Group, Reno, Nevada, September 6, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2015

  1. China, rates, and the outlook: may the (economic) force be with you
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  2. Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
  3. Data is the new black: monetary policy by the numbers
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  4. Impact investing, impacting neighborhoods
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  5. Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (2)
  6. Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
  7. Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Chapter (2016)
  8. Monetary policy and the independence dilemma
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
  9. The economic outlook: live long and prosper
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
  10. The outlook, education, and the future of the American economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  11. The recovery’s final frontier?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
  12. The rediscovery of financial market imperfections
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  13. The view from here: the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2014

  1. A wedge in the dual mandate: monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)
  2. Accommodative monetary policy: savior or saboteur?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  3. Economic conditions and monetary policy: a transitional phase introduction
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  4. Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
  5. Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
  6. Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (2)
  7. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (69)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads View citations (7)
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2012) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)
  8. Navigating toward normal: the road back to the future for monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  9. The Federal Reserve: inside monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  10. The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)

2013

  1. A defense of moderation in monetary policy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)
  2. Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
  3. Lessons from the financial crisis for unconventional monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Life's unpredictable arc
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  5. Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on yields and exchange rates
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
  6. Monetary policy and the recovery
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (2)
  7. Rebalancing the economy: a tale of two countries
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
  8. The economic outlook and monetary policy: moving in the right direction
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  9. The economic outlook, unemployment, and monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  10. The economic recovery: past, present, and future
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
  11. The economy and monetary policy in uncertain times
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  12. The economy and monetary policy: follow the demand
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  13. The economy and the Federal Reserve: real progress, but too soon to relax
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  14. Will unconventional monetary policy be the new normal?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2012

  1. Bank regulation in the post-crisis world
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  2. Discussion of "Housing, monetary policy, and the recovery"
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  3. Monetary policy and the slow recovery: It’s not just about housing
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads
  4. Monetary policy, money, and inflation
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
  5. The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
  6. The Federal Reserve's unconventional policies
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
  7. The Federal Reserve’s mandate and best practice monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
  8. The economic outlook and challenges to monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads
  9. The economic outlook and monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) Downloads
  10. The economic outlook: global and domestic challenges to growth
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  11. The economy, fiscal policy, and monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  12. The role of monetary policy in bolstering economic growth
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads
  13. The slow recovery: causes and monetary policy implications
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  14. Welcoming remarks
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2011

  1. Economics instruction and the brave new world of monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  2. Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (52)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2012)
  3. Maintaining price stability in a global economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  4. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (2)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) Downloads View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2010) Downloads View citations (5)

    See also Chapter (2012)
  5. Monetary policy in an era of crises
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  6. Risk management and macroprudential supervisory policies
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  7. Swimming upstream: monetary policy following the financial crisis
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  8. The economic outlook
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) Downloads View citations (5)
  9. The outlook for the U.S. economy and role for monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  10. The outlook for the economy and monetary policy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  11. Unconventional monetary policy: lessons from the past three years
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
  12. Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2010

  1. Sailing into headwinds: the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (34)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) Downloads View citations (33)

    See also Chapter (2010)
  3. The economic outlook: moving forward on a bumpy road
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2009

  1. Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2009)

2008

  1. A Black Swan in the Money Market
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (46)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) Downloads View citations (28)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2009)
  2. Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market
    Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Downloads View citations (32)
  3. Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) Downloads
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) Downloads

    See also Chapter (2009)
  4. LEARNING, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE PITFALLS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL MONETARY POLICY
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads View citations (21)
    Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) Downloads View citations (20)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) Downloads View citations (19)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2008)
  5. WELFARE-MAXIMIZING MONETARY POLICY UNDER PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2007) Downloads
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) Downloads View citations (2)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)

2007

  1. Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2009)
  2. Learning and the Role of Macroeconomic Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (3)
  3. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (81)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (12)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (81)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)

2006

  1. Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) Downloads View citations (24)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) Downloads View citations (12)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (9)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2006) Downloads View citations (10)

    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)
    Chapter (2007)
  2. Macroeconomic factors in the term structure of interest rates when agents learn
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics View citations (1)
  3. Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2010)
  4. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (30)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) Downloads View citations (32)

    See also Chapter (2008)

2005

  1. Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (60)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2003) Downloads View citations (25)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (11)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) Downloads View citations (16)

    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2005)
  2. Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (174)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) Downloads View citations (91)

    See also Chapter (2006)
  3. Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics (2001) View citations (4)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) Downloads View citations (16)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of the European Economic Association (2006)
  4. The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (92)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) Downloads View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (5)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2004) Downloads View citations (4)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) Downloads View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2005)

2004

  1. Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2005)
  2. Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) Downloads View citations (66)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)
  3. Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2006)
  4. Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (18)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2004) Downloads View citations (10)
    Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics (2001) Downloads View citations (5)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) Downloads View citations (9)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2001) Downloads View citations (15)
  5. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2005)

2003

  1. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (105)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) Downloads View citations (48)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) Downloads View citations (13)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2002) Downloads View citations (32)

    See also Chapter (2004)
  2. Inflation Scares and Monetary Policy
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics
  3. Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (20)
  4. Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (112)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (99)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2003)
  5. Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (97)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) Downloads View citations (104)

    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2002)
  6. The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) Downloads View citations (165)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2000, Society for Computational Economics (2000) View citations (5)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2001) Downloads View citations (32)
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) Downloads View citations (4)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) Downloads View citations (24)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2003)
  7. The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (41)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (8)

2001

  1. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics View citations (39)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) Downloads View citations (34)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2003)

1999

  1. Implications of the Zero Bound on Interest Rates for the Design of Monetary Policy Rules
    Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (2)
  2. Simple rules for monetary policy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (99)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2003)
  3. The Performance of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
    Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (10)
  4. Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (60)
    See also Journal Article in Conference Series ; [Proceedings] (2000)
  5. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics (1999) Downloads View citations (7)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (8)
    Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics View citations (53)
    Working Papers, Harvard - Institute for International Development (1996) View citations (8)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Growth (2000)
  6. What's happened to the Phillips curve?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (49)

1998

  1. Investment, capacity, and output: a putty-clay approach
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) Downloads View citations (30)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (2000)
  3. Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (109)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) Downloads View citations (201)

    See also Chapter (1999)

1997

  1. Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (16)
  2. Measuring the social return to R&D
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (13)

    See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Journal of Economics (1998)

1995

  1. The limits to "growing an economy."
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Undated

  1. The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (41)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1997)

Journal Articles

2017

  1. Looking Back, Looking Ahead
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2017)
  2. Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads
  3. Three Questions on R-star
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads

2016

  1. A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 47, (PA), 5-18 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  2. After the first rate hike
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  3. Data dependence awakens
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
  4. Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
  5. Longview: The Economic Outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
  6. Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads View citations (12)
  7. Rules of engagement
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  8. The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

  1. An overview of our 2015 Annual Report. John Williams, president and chief executive officer, and Mark Gould, first vice president, welcome you to the San Francisco Fed’s 2015 annual report, “What We’ve Learned…and why it matters”
    Annual Report, 2015, 02-02 Downloads
  2. China in the global economy. SF Fed President John Williams talks with Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel, and Fernanda Nechio of the international research team about China's economic slowdown and how it's affecting global economic activity
    Annual Report, 2015, 07-07 Downloads
  3. Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  4. Health and prosperity. Health and community prosperity are intrinsically linked. SF Fed Community Development’s Ian Galloway sits down with President John Williams to discuss the issue
    Annual Report, 2015, 06-06 Downloads
  5. Looking forward: the path for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
  6. Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  7. Measuring monetary policy’s effect on house prices
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
  8. Monetary policy and the independence dilemma
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  9. Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams
    Annual Report, 2015, 08-08 Downloads
  10. Regional influences on monetary policy. SF Fed Branch Managers Robin Rockwood, Steve Walker, and Roger Replogle talk with President John Williams about ensuring the diverse industries and geographies within our District have a voice
    Annual Report, 2015, 10-10 Downloads
  11. The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest
    Business Economics, 2015, 50, (2), 57-60 Downloads View citations (8)
  12. The economic outlook: live long and prosper
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  13. The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's David Erickson and Laura Choi sit down with President John Williams to discuss the fragility of American household finances and how to get more families on the road to economic opportunity
    Annual Report, 2015, 04-04 Downloads
  14. The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's Laura Choi talks with President John Williams about creative placemaking, a neighborhood revitalization strategy that engages local artists and performers
    Annual Report, 2015, 05-05 Downloads
  15. The recovery’s final frontier?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  16. The view from here: outlook and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads
  17. Transforming financial services. Banking supervision’s Tracy Basinger explains why the intersection of finance and technology–fintech–is a matter of great importance and interest to the Fed
    Annual Report, 2015, 09-09 Downloads
  18. What we’ve learned... and why it matters. 2015 Annual Report President's Letter
    Annual Report, 2015, 01-01 Downloads

2014

  1. Does college matter?
    Annual Report, 2014, (1), 1-24 Downloads
  2. Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  3. Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  4. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (10), 3154-85 Downloads View citations (68)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  5. Navigating toward normal: the future for policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads
  6. Policy rules in practice
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 49, (C), 151-153 Downloads View citations (2)
  7. The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2013

  1. A defense of moderation in monetary policy
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 38, (PB), 137-150 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  2. Bubbles Tomorrow and Bubbles Yesterday, but Never Bubbles Today&quest
    Business Economics, 2013, 48, (4), 224-230 Downloads View citations (6)
  3. Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (sept23) Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  4. Economic outlook: moving in the right direction
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (may20) Downloads
  5. Monetary policy in uncertain times
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (jan21) Downloads View citations (3)
  6. Rebalancing the economy: a tale of two countries
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (nov12) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  7. The San Francisco Fed and the West: a century of reinvention
    Annual Report, 2013, (1), 1-9 Downloads
  8. The economic recovery: past, present, and future
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (july1) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  9. The economy and Fed policy: follow the demand
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (feb25) Downloads View citations (1)
  10. Will unconventional policy be the new normal?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (oct7) Downloads

2012

  1. Cash is dead! Long live cash!: annual report essay
    Annual Report, 2012 Downloads
  2. Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, 47-82 Downloads View citations (75)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  3. Monetary policy, money, and inflation
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (july9) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  4. The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (jan17) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  5. The Federal Reserve’s unconventional policies
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (nov13) Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  6. The economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (oct1) Downloads
  7. The outlook and monetary policy challenges
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (july23) Downloads
  8. The slow recovery: it’s not just housing
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (apr9) Downloads

2011

  1. Economics instruction and the brave new world of monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (june6) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  2. Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (jan31) Downloads View citations (8)
  3. Maintaining price stability in a global economy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (may9) Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  4. Monetary Policy and Housing Booms
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2011, 7, (1), 345-355 Downloads View citations (9)
  5. Opening the temple: annual report essay
    Annual Report, 2011 Downloads
  6. Unconventional monetary policy: lessons from the past three years
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (oct3) Downloads View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  7. What is the new normal unemployment rate?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (feb14) Downloads View citations (15)

2010

  1. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 48 - 52 Downloads
  2. Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning
    Economic Review, 2010, 1-12 Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
  3. The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 367 - 375 Downloads
    See also Chapter (2010)
  4. The shape of things to come
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (may17) Downloads
  5. Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 129-143 Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in Proceedings, 2007 (2007) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Working Paper (2008)

2009

  1. A Black Swan in the Money Market
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2009, 1, (1), 58-83 Downloads View citations (193)
    Also in Proceedings, 2009, (Jan) (2009) Downloads View citations (141)

    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, (4), 492-503 Downloads View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
  3. Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009, 40, (2 (Fall)), 1-49 Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  4. How big is the output gap?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (jun12) Downloads View citations (12)
  5. The risk of deflation
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (mar27) Downloads View citations (8)

2008

  1. Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (Supplement 1), S80-S96 Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2007

  1. Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge
    Economic Review, 2007, 1-23 Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
    Chapter (2007)
  2. Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2421-2438 Downloads View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  3. Monetary policy, transparency, and credibility: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (may25) Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (5), 1406-1435 Downloads View citations (86)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2006

  1. Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (oct13) Downloads View citations (21)
  2. Labor markets and the macroeconomy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (jul21) Downloads
  3. Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006, 4, (2-3), 366-375 Downloads View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  4. Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change
    Economic Review, 2006, 1-16 Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Proceedings, 2005, 53-81 (2005) Downloads View citations (11)

    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

  1. Expectations, learning and monetary policy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1807-1808 Downloads View citations (9)
  2. Fiscal and monetary policy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (jun10) Downloads
  3. Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 498-527 Downloads View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
  4. Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (1), 1-27 Downloads View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  5. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1927-1950 Downloads View citations (65)
    Also in Proceedings, 2003 (2003) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Working Paper (2005)
  6. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (5), 855-879 Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2004

  1. Technology, productivity, and public policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2004, (mar12) Downloads

2003

  1. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, 85, (4), 1063-1070 Downloads View citations (303)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
  2. Robust monetary policy with competing reference models
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (5), 945-975 Downloads View citations (164)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
  3. Simple rules for monetary policy
    Economic Review, 2003, 1-12 Downloads View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
  4. The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
    American Economic Review, 2003, 93, (3), 622-645 Downloads View citations (227)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
  5. The natural rate of interest
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2003, (oct31) Downloads View citations (20)

2002

  1. Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002, 33, (2), 63-146 Downloads View citations (173)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2000

  1. Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
    Journal of Political Economy, 2000, 108, (5), 928-960 Downloads View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
  2. Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2000, 936-978 View citations (240)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
  3. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
    Journal of Economic Growth, 2000, 5, (1), 65-85 Downloads View citations (154)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

1999

  1. Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective
    Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1999, (Jan), 1-19 Downloads View citations (75)

1998

  1. Implementing price stability bands, boundaries and inflation targeting
    Proceedings, 1998, (Mar) View citations (6)
  2. Measuring the Social Return to R&D
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, 113, (4), 1119-1135 Downloads View citations (241)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

1997

  1. The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1997, 47, (1), 43-81 Downloads View citations (99)
    See also Working Paper
  2. The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model
    Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1997, (Apr), 227-245 Downloads View citations (83)

Chapters

2016

  1. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, 2016 Downloads View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  2. Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy
    A chapter in Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, 2016, vol. 88, pp 7-16 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  3. Panel on Independence, Accountability, and Transparency in Central Bank Governance
    Chapter 6 in Central Bank Governance & Oversight Reforminancial Crisis, 2016 Downloads

2013

  1. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, 2013, pp 2-21 View citations (1)

2012

  1. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
    A chapter in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, 2012, pp 255-288 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2010

  1. Comment on "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001"
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 48-51 Downloads
  2. Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
    Chapter 15 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 829-859 Downloads View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
  3. The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 367-375 Downloads
    See also Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2010)
  4. Wrap-up Discussion
    A chapter in Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, 2010 Downloads

2009

  1. Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
    Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, 2009, vol. 13, pp 115-144 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2008

  1. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2008, pp 247-289 Downloads View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

  1. Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge
    Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 2007, vol. 11, pp 077-123 Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)
    Working Paper (2006)

2006

  1. Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, 2006, pp 229-312 Downloads View citations (112)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2004

  1. Discussion of 'A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence'
    A chapter in The Future of Inflation Targeting, 2004 Downloads
  2. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
    A chapter in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, 2004, pp 201-246 Downloads View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

1999

  1. Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
    A chapter in Monetary Policy Rules, 1999, pp 263-318 Downloads View citations (238)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
 
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