The high costs and effectiveness of Indonesia's current mix of policies aimed at maintaining rice self-sufficiency, for example fertiliser and other subsidies, has been questioned. Consequently, attention has turned to developing policies to increase farmers yields through efficiencies, for example as a result of better extension. The main issue investigated in this article is whether existing yields can be significantly improved through increasing the efficiency of individual farmers. Production frontiers are estimated and technical efficiencies/inefficiencies predicted from panel data and for one year at a time. Different results are explained in relation to a number of aspects, especially the rate of adoption of new technologies, and policy actions are recommended. The robustness of the analysis is examined as conclusions obtained from past analyses have often been inconsistent.