Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece

Anthony N. Rezitis () and Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2009, vol. 41, issue 01

Abstract: This paper examines the supply response of the Greek pork market. A GARCH process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility, while price and supply equations are estimated jointly. In addition to the standard GARCH model, several different symmetric, asymmetric, and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results indicate that among the estimated GARCH models, the quadratic NAGARCH model seems to better describe producers’ price volatility, which was found to be an important risk factor of the supply response function of the Greek pork market. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that feed price is an important cost factor of the supply response function and that high uncertainty restricts the expansion of the Greek pork sector. Finally, the model provides forecasts for quantity supplied, producers’ price, and price volatility.

Keywords: asymmetry; GARCH; pork supply; price volatility; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; C510; D200; Q110 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:joaaec:48764

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