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The US Monetary Base and Major World Equity Markets: An Empirical Investigation

Bahram Adrangi (), Arjun Chatrath (), Joseph Macri () and Kambiz Raffiee ()
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Bahram Adrangi: University of Portland, 5000 N. Willamette Blvd, Portland, Oregon 97203, U.S.A.
Arjun Chatrath: University of Portland, 5000 N. Willamette Blvd, Portland, Oregon 97203, U.S.A.
Joseph Macri: Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, 2109, AUSTRALIA
Kambiz Raffiee: College of Business at University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada 89557, U.S.A.

Review of Economics & Finance, 2016, vol. 6, pages 49-64

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the US monetary base and the five largest equity indices of the world. The mainstay of the study is the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). Analyzing impulse response functions shows strong support for the notion that the US monetary base is associated with movements in the major equity markets. For instance, positive shocks to the monetary base in the US, are responsible for positive changes in the world equity markets that may last up to six months. Examining impulse responses of equity indices from a Markov Switching VAR, which takes regime changes into account, confirm these findings. Furthermore, we show that equity responses to the positive shocks to the monetary base may be much higher than those to negative shocks. We conclude the US monetary base, and quantitative easing may have contributed to a positive business and credit climate in advanced economies of the world.

Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Equity Markets; Markov Switching VAR; Granger Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E50 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: This paper benefited from the recommendations of an anonymous reviewer. The remaining errors are the authors' responsibility.
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