Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

Valerie A. Mueller and Daniel E. Osgood

Agricultural Economics, 2009, vol. 40, issue 5, pages 573-586

Abstract: We find that large short-term precipitation shocks damage the long-term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit-constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long-term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long-term losses. Copyright (c) 2009 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Date: 2009

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