How Reliable Are Hog Futures as Forecasts?

Colin A. Carter and Sandeep Mohapatra

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2008, vol. 90, issue 2, pages 367-378

Abstract: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices. Copyright ©2008 American Agricultural Economics Association.

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