An Empirical Examination of the Timing of Land Conversions in the Presence of Farmland Preservation Programs

Charles A. Towe, Cynthia J. Nickerson and Nancy Bockstael

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2008, vol. 90, issue 3, pages 613-626

Abstract: Using a panel of parcel-level data we estimate a hazard model and find strong evidence that the mere existence of an option to preserve farmland delays decisions to convert farmland to developed uses by about six years, a reduction in median conversion time of 12 to 43% depending on parcel size. Where such delays allow local governments to improve infrastructure or implement stricter growth control measures, benefits of a preservation option may be even more long term. Also, increases in the variance of returns to development tended to slow conversion for parcels with all but the highest lot capacities. Copyright Copyright 2008 American Agricultural Economics Association.

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