PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICE INDUSTRY

Juliana Yim and Heather Mitchell

Australian Economic Papers, 2007, vol. 46, issue 4, pages 375-388

Abstract: This paper looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, a non-linear extension of the Granger thick model concept, hybrid ANN's, to predict failure of financial service firms in Australia. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for up to two years prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting firm failure. Copyright 2007 The Authors
Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/ University of Adelaide and Flinders University .

Date: 2007

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