SHOULD OIL PRICES RECEIVE SO MUCH ATTENTION? AN EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OIL PRICES FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY

Lance Bachmeier, Qi Li and Dandan Liu

Economic Inquiry, 2008, vol. 46, issue 4, pages 528-539

Abstract: "This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy-related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. "("JEL "Q43, E37, C32) Copyright (c) 2007 Western Economic Association International.

Date: 2008

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x link to full text (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:46:y:2008:i:4:p:528-539

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0095-2583

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Inquiry is edited by Preston McAfee

More articles in Economic Inquiry from Western Economic Association International
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().