Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?

Albert N. Link and John T. Scott

Economica, 2009, vol. 76, issue 302, pages 264-281

Abstract: An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of Department of Defense (DoD) Phase II awards suggests that the estimated probability of commercialization is only 0.47. We investigate econometrically whether outside private investors have useful information about proposed SBIR projects' prospects for commercialization. Our findings suggest that they do, thereby providing support for the possibility that a prediction market could improve the performance of the SBIR programme. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2008.

Date: 2009

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