In this study, we use the Harbinson Proposal and July Framework to compare a 'likely' Doha scenario with a realistic baseline. The novelty of this study is that we focus exclusively on the trade-led welfare impacts in selected EU member states. The important features of this note are the: (i) usage of the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (version 6) data; (ii) focus on EU25 regions incorporating all major Common Agricultural Policy instruments and reforms; and (iii) inclusion of binding tariff overhangs into the Harbinson tariff reductions. Results show the damping effects of tariff-binding overhangs on welfare outcomes. This and other factors which limit the gains to liberalisation mean that the EU25 only realises 10% of its long-run welfare gain potential, as defined by complete liberalisation. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.