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Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration

Geert Bekaert (), Campbell Harvey (), Christian Lundblad and Stephan Siegel ()

Journal of Finance, 2007, vol. 62, issue 3, 1081-1137

Abstract: We propose an exogenous measure of a country's growth opportunities by interacting the country's local industry mix with global price to earnings ("PE") ratios. We find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts, equity markets, and banking systems. We also find that financial development, external finance dependence, and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness. Finally, we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global "PE" ratios to relative economic growth. Copyright 2007 by The American Finance Association.

Date: 2007
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