Abstract:
This paper presents evidence supporting the existence of a stable money demand relationship for Germany plus a core group of countries--France, Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg--that have not realigned their parities against the deutsche mark since at least 1987. The predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate for French and German inflation is also examined; it is shown that the ERM aggregate is a better predictor of German inflation than the German monetary aggregate alone. Thus, the ERM money supply is a useful indicator for German monetary policy, even if the latter only focuses on achieving domestic inflation targets. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester