EVIDENCE THEORY AS A PROCEDURE FOR HANDLING NOVEL EVENTS

Guido Fioretti

Metroeconomica, 2009, vol. 60, issue 2, pages 283-301

Abstract: Evidence Theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that entails profound epistemological differences with respect to Probability Theory. In fact, its paradigmatic situation is the judge who must evaluate testimonies, rather than the gambler who must evaluates odds. Unlike a gambler, who faces a definite set of possibilities, a judge maybe forced to change her evaluation because of novel possibilities suggested by unexpected testimonies. In this sense, Evidence Theory provides a formalization of some among Shackles intuitions. While the details of the connections between Shackle's theory and Evidence Theory have been explored elsewhere, this article is devoted to a detailed explanation of the working of Evidence Theory. An example is discussed in detail and several domains of application are briefly sketched. Copyright © 2008 The Author. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Date: 2009
View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent ... &year=2009&part=null link to full text (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:metroe:v:60:y:2009:i:2:p:283-301

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0026-1386

Access Statistics for this article

Metroeconomica is edited by Heinz D. Kurz and Neri Salvadori

More articles in Metroeconomica from Blackwell Publishing
Series data maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().