Modeling the Cumulative Cases from SARS

Renbao Chen and Ping Wang
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Renbao Chen: National University of Singapore
Ping Wang: St. John's University

Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2008, vol. 2, issue 2, pages 3

Abstract:

In this paper, we fit the model to the actual data of cumulative cases from the 2003 SARS outbreak. The model proves a good fit for the four regions we examine, China (mainland), Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore, as evident from the high R2 values and the randomness of the residuals. In addition, we obtain second order derivatives of our curve fits to propose use of T*, the time in days taken to slow the rate of the increase in the number of cumulative SARS cases, as a measure of the effectiveness of control measures in each country. We then incorporate explanatory variables to link the model parameters to economic and demographic factors of the areas hit heavily by SARS. The work enables prediction of the future behavior of SARS or other epidemics should they ever strike again.

Date: 2008
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