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Journal of Prediction Markets
2007 - 2010
Edited by Nottingham Business School Leighton Vaughan Williams
from University of Buckingham Press
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Volume 4, issue 2 , 2010
Active Hedging Greeks of an Options Portfolio Integrating Churning and Minimization of Cost of Hedging Using Quadratic & Linear Programing pp. 1-14 Pankaj Sinha , Akshay Gupta and Hemant Mudgal Totals Markets as Evidence Against Widespread Point Shaving pp. 15-22 Richard Borghesi , Rodney Joseph Paul and Andrew Weinbach Pari-Mutuel Information Aggregation Mechanisms with Public Knowledge pp. 23-43 Jared Bullen and Jordi Mckenzie Consistency in the US Congressional Popular Opinion Polls and Prediction Markets pp. 45-64 Elliot Tonkes and Dharma Lesmono Volume 4, issue 1 , 2010
Forecasting the Dow Jones Rate of Change by Using Vector Auto-Regression pp. 1-5 Nissim Ben David A Statistical Arbitrage Trade Based on Betting Price Volatility pp. 7-15 Alasdair Brown Hedging Greeks for a Portfolio of Options Using Linear and Quadratic Programming pp. 17-26 Pankaj Sinha and Archit Johar Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications pp. 27-58 Caitlin Hall Evidence on the Favorite-Longshot Bias as a Supply-Side Phenomenon pp. 59-77 Matti Metsola Volume 3, issue 3 , 2009
The Effect of Contract Structure on Prediction Market Price Biases pp. 1-12 Richard Borghesi Point Shaving in the NFL Gambling Market: A Bootstrap Investigation pp. 13-31 George C Diemer Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox pp. 33-44 Katarína Kálovcová and Andreas Ortmann The Cleverness of Crowds pp. 45-47 Leighton Vaughan Williams and Julie Vaughan William Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry pp. 49-62 Martin Waitz and Andreas Mild Volume 3, issue 2 , 2009
Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets pp. 1-20 Thomas Seeman , Albrecht Enders Enders and Harald Hungenberg Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior pp. 21-37 Rodney Joseph Paul and Andrew Weinbach Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective pp. 39-64 Gerrit Kamp and Peter Koen An Examination of Prediction Market Efficiency: NBA Contracts on Tradesports pp. 65-77 Richard Borghesi Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services pp. 78-106 David Rajakovich and Vladimir Vladimirov Volume 3, issue 1 , 2009
The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO pp. 1-11 Jim Lavoie The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization pp. 13-16 Art Hall Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets pp. 17-39 Brian Spears , Christina LaComb , John Interrante , Janet Barnett and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist's Perspective pp. 41-44 Marco Ottaviani Hanson's Automated Market Maker pp. 45-59 Henry Berg and Todd Proebsting On Market Maker Functions pp. 61-63 Robin Hanson Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience pp. 65-85 Adam Siegel The Emergence of Prediction Markets within Business Firms: A Skeptical Perspective from an Intrigued Academic pp. 87-88 Paul W. Rhode Private Prediction Markets and the Law pp. 89-110 Tom Bell Comment on Bell Article pp. 111-112 Robert Litan Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Koleman Strumpf Volume 2, issue 3 , 2008
Forgone Interest and Contract Mispricing in Predictive Markets pp. 1-13 Charles de los Reyes and Lawrence Raifman Exploiting Inefficiencies in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Exploratory Drift Modeling pp. 15-32 William Mallios The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets pp. 33-46 Thomas Seemann and Harald Hungenberg Hierarchical Bayes Prediction for the 2008 US Presidential Election pp. 47-59 Pankaj Sinha and Ashok Bansal Shorting the Bear: A Test of Anecdotal Evidence of Insider Trading in Early Stages of the Sub-Prime Market Crisis pp. 61-69 Les Coleman and Adi Schnytzer Volume 2, issue 2 , 2008
Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk pp. 1-12 Bergfjord O. The Relative Importance of Strength and Weight in Processing New Information in the College Football Betting Market pp. 13-28 Greg Durham and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In? pp. 29-50 Alexander Karl Koch and Hui-Fai Shing Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets pp. 53-70 Christian Slamka , Arina Soukhoroukova and Martin Spann Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence pp. 71-91 Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt Volume 2, issue 1 , 2008
The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market pp. 1-27 Greg Durham and Tod Perry Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets pp. 29-43 Thomas Gruca , Joyce Berg and Michael Cipriano The Tradesports NFL Prediction Market: An Analysis of Market Efficiency, Transaction Costs, and Bettor Preferences pp. 45-71 O'Connor, Philip and Feng Zhou Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations pp. 73-90 Shih-Wei Wu , Johnnie Johnson and Ming-Chien Sung Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections pp. 91-97 Lionel Page Volume 1, issue 3 , 2007
Adapting Least-Square Support Vector Regression Models to Forecast the Outcome of Horseraces pp. 169-187 Stefan Lessmann , Ming-Chien Sung and Johnnie Johnson Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems - An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations pp. 189-208 Timm Sprenger , Paul Bolster and Anand Venkateswaran Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior pp. 209-218 Rodney Joseph Paul and Andrew Weinbach Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy pp. 219-231 Thomas Gruca and Joyce Berg Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports pp. 233-253 Richard Borghesi Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup pp. 255-270 Ricard Gil and Steven Levitt Volume 1, issue 2 , 2007
An Examination of In-Play Sports Betting Using One-Day Cricket Matches pp. 93-109 Steve Easton and Katherine Uylangco The Hidden Beauty of the Quadratic Market Scoring Rule: A Uniform Liquidity Market Maker, with Variations pp. 111-125 Michael Abramowicz Financial Binary Betting, Styles, Valuations and Deductions from Data pp. 127-146 Peter Oliver How to Pay Traders in Information Markets: Results from a Field Experiment pp. 147-156 Stefan Luckner and Christof Weinhardt The Production and Prediction of Traffic Accidents pp. 157-168 Yuval Shilony Volume 1, issue 1 , 2007
Introduction to the First Issue from the Editor pp. 1 Leighton Vaughan Williams Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation pp. 3-15 Robin Hanson Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed pp. 17-41 Jed Christiansen Comparing the Effectiveness of One- and Two-step Conditional Logit Models for Predicting Outcomes in a Speculative Market pp. 43-59 Ming-Chien Sung and Johnnie Johnson Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football pp. 61-73 Bruno Deschamps and Olivier Gergaud Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review pp. 75-91 Georgios Tziralis and Ilias Tatsiopoulos
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