Journal of Prediction Markets

2007 - 2009

Edited by Nottingham Business School Leighton Vaughan Williams

from University of Buckingham Press
Series data maintained by Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross ().

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The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO pp. 1-11: Jim Lavoie
The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization pp. 13-16: Art Hall
Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets pp. 17-39: Brian Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett and Senturk-Dogonaksoy, Deniz
The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist's Perspective pp. 41-44: Marco Ottaviani
Hanson's Automated Market Maker pp. 45-59: Henry Berg and Todd Proebsting
On Market Maker Functions pp. 61-63: Robin Hanson
Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience pp. 65-85: Adam Siegel
The Emergence of Prediction Markets within Business Firms: A Skeptical Perspective from an Intrigued Academic pp. 87-88: Paul Phode
Private Prediction Markets and the Law pp. 89-110: Tom Bell
Comment on Bell Article pp. 111-112: Robert Litan
Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets: Koleman Strumpf

Forgone Interest and Contract Mispricing in Predictive Markets pp. 1-13: Charles de los Reyes and Lawrence Raifman
Exploiting Inefficiencies in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Exploratory Drift Modeling pp. 15-32: William Mallios
The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets pp. 33-46: Thomas Seemann and Harald Hungenberg
Hierarchical Bayes Prediction for the 2008 US Presidential Election pp. 47-59: Pankaj Sinha and Ashok Bansal
Shorting the Bear: A Test of Anecdotal Evidence of Insider Trading in Early Stages of the Sub-Prime Market Crisis pp. 61-69: Les Coleman and Adi Schnytzer

Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk pp. 1-12: Bergfjord O.
The Relative Importance of Strength and Weight in Processing New Information in the College Football Betting Market pp. 13-28: Greg Durham and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan
Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In? pp. 29-50: Alexander Karl Koch and Hui-Fai Shing
Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets pp. 53-70: Christian Slamka, Arina Soukhoroukova and Martin Spann
Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence pp. 71-91: Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt

The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market pp. 1-27: Greg Durham and Tod Perry
Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets pp. 29-43: Thomas Gruca, Joyce Berg and Michael Cipriano
The Tradesports NFL Prediction Market: An Analysis of Market Efficiency, Transaction Costs, and Bettor Preferences pp. 45-71: O'Connor, Philip and Feng Zhou
Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations pp. 73-90: Wu, Shih-Wei, Johnnie Johnson and Sung, Ming-Chien
Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections pp. 91-97: Lionel Page

Adapting Least-Square Support Vector Regression Models to Forecast the Outcome of Horseraces pp. 169-187: Stefan Lessmann, Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnnie Johnson
Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems - An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations pp. 189-208: Timm Sprenger, Paul Bolster and Anand Venkateswaran
Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior pp. 209-218: Rodney Joseph Paul and Andrew Weinbach
Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy pp. 219-231: Thomas Gruca and Joyce Berg
Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports pp. 233-253: Richard Borghesi
Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup pp. 255-270: Ricard Gil and Steven Levitt

An Examination of In-Play Sports Betting Using One-Day Cricket Matches pp. 93-109: Steve Easton and Katherine Uylangco
The Hidden Beauty of the Quadratic Market Scoring Rule: A Uniform Liquidity Market Maker, with Variations pp. 111-125: Michael Abramowicz
Financial Binary Betting, Styles, Valuations and Deductions from Data pp. 127-146: Peter Oliver
How to Pay Traders in Information Markets: Results from a Field Experiment pp. 147-156: Stefan Luckner and Christof Weinhardt
The Production and Prediction of Traffic Accidents pp. 157-168: Yuval Shilony

Introduction to the First Issue from the Editor pp. 1: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation pp. 3-15: Robin Hanson
Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments in Small Markets and Behaviours Observed pp. 17-41: Jed Christiansen
Comparing the Effectiveness of One- and Two-step Conditional Logit Models for Predicting Outcomes in a Speculative Market pp. 43-59: Sung, Ming-Chien and Johnnie Johnson
Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football pp. 61-73: Bruno Deschamps and Olivier Gergaud
Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review pp. 75-91: Georgios Tziralis and Ilias Tatsiopoulos