Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry

Martin Waitz and Andreas Mild

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2009, vol. 3, issue 3, pages 49-62

Abstract: Corporate prediction markets forecast business issues like market shares, sales volumes or the success rates of new product developments. The improvement of its accuracy is a major topic in prediction market research. Mostly, such markets are using a continuous double auction market mechanism. We propose a method that aggregates the data provided by such a prediction market in a different way by only accounting for the most knowledgeable market participants. We demonstrate its predictive ability with a real world experiment.

Date: 2009
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