The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry

Bryan Campbell and Steve Murphy

Canadian Public Policy, 2006, vol. 32, issue 1, pages 23-40

Abstract: This paper evaluates the forecast performance of Canadian financial institutions and forecasting firms between 1984 and 2003. The sample period is roughly double that of an earlier study. We divide the sample in two and investigate whether a particular institution has improved its relative standing over the last ten years. Results for two Quebec institutions -- the Banque Nationale (National Bank) and the Mouvement Desjardins -- are now included in the second part of the sample, whereas a complete dataset was not available for these two institutions during the 1980s. We look as well at the relative performance of individual forecasters compared to the consensus forecast (defined as the mean of the forecasts available during the period in question). The paper then compares the accuracy of the Canadian consensus forecast with the forecast offered by the OECD each December for a limited number of key macroeconomic variables.

Date: 2006
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