A RESIDUAL-BASED TEST FOR STOCHASTIC COINTEGRATION

Brendan McCabe, Stephen Leybourne and David Harris

Econometric Theory, 2006, vol. 22, issue 03, pages 429-456

Abstract: We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in a modified version of the stochastic integration and cointegration framework of Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002, Journal of Econometrics 111, 363 384). This nonlinear setup allows for volatility in excess of that catered for by the standard integration cointegration paradigm through the introduction of nonstationary heteroskedasticity. We propose a test for stochastic cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration and a secondary test for stationary cointegration against the heteroskedastic alternative. Asymptotic distributions of these tests under their respective null hypotheses are derived, and consistency under their respective alternatives is established. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the tests will perform well in practice. An empirical application to the term structure of interest rates is also given.We are most grateful to the Associate Editor and two anonymous referees for providing helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper.

Date: 2006

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