ESTIMATION RISK IN GARCH VaR AND ES ESTIMATES

Feng Gao and Fengming Song

Econometric Theory, 2008, vol. 24, issue 05, pages 1404-1424

Abstract: Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are now both widely used risk measures. However, users have not paid much attention to the estimation risk issues, especially in the case of heteroskedastic financial time series. The key challenge arises from the fact that the estimated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) innovations are not the true independent innovations. The purpose of this work is to provide an analytical method to assess the precision of conditional VaR and ES in the GARCH model estimated by the filtered historical simulation (FHS) method based on the asymptotic behavior of the residual empirical distribution function in GARCH processes. The proposed method is evaluated by simulation and proved valid.

Date: 2008

Downloads: (external link)
http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466608080559 link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:etheor:v:24:y:2008:i:05:p:1404-1424_08

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Econometric Theory from Cambridge University Press
Address: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Series data maintained by Mike Eden ().