Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

Catalin Angelo Ioan () and Gina E. Ioan ()

Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, 2011, issue 4(4), pages 114-126

Abstract: In this article, we will carry out an analysis on the regularity of the Gross Domestic Product of a country, in our case the United States. The method of analysis is based on a new method of analysis – the cyclic regressions based on the Fourier series of a function. Another point of view is that of considering instead the growth rate of GDP the speed of variation of this rate, computed as a numerical derivative. The obtained results show a cycle for this indicator for 71 years, the mean square error being 0.93%. The method described allows an prognosis on short-term trends in GDP.

Keywords: GDP; cycle; Fourier; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2011:i:4:p:114-126

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