REVISITING THE EXPORT-OUTPUT NEXUS FOR WESTERN AFRICA COUNTRIES: A MARKOV SWITCHING CAUSALITY APPROACH

Bédia F. AKA ()

Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2008, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 155-166

Abstract: This paper examines the empirical relationships between exports growth and economic performance for western Africa countries using a non-linear Markov Switching VAR model in contrast with previous linear time series studies. We could not find causality from exports to GDP and vice versa in Benin, while causality is found only from GDP to exports in Senegal and Togo supporting the growth-driven exports (GDE) point of view, and from exports to GDP in Niger supporting the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. We find bi-directional regime-dependent causality between exports and GDP in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Mali where both hypotheses hold implying a virtuous circle of growth and exports.

Keywords: Multivariate Markov Switching Model; Exports; Output Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I20 C22 C51 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.usc.es/~economet/journals1/aeid/aeid8113.pdf
Access restricted to subscribers and Pay Per View access through SSRN. Free on line subscription for universities from low income countries. More information at http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Applied Econometrics and International Development from Euro-American Association of Economic Development
Series data maintained by M. Carmen Guisan ().