Demographic Transition and Optimal Saving in Four Asian Countries

R.S. Guest and Ian Martin McDonald ()
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R.S. Guest: Graduate School of Management, Griffith University

Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), 2004, vol. 34, issue 1, pages 1-13

Abstract: This paper reports projections of the impact of prospective demographic change on the pattern of optimal national saving for four Asian countries: Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore for the period from 2000 to 2050. The method is simulation of a Ramsey model of optimal saving for a small open economy with vintage capital. The simulations show that variations on prospective demographic change cause variations in the patterns of optimal rates of national saving, reinforcing the idea that evaluations of a country's saving performance should take account of its prospective demographic structure.

Keywords: Demographics; Saving (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 J11 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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