Book Review - The Black Swan (Random House, New York, 2007, 366 pages (hardback) ISBN 978-1-4000-6351-2)

James Dick
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James Dick: President, Economic Society of Australia (Qld Branch), and Head of Beta Research, Queensland Investment Corporation, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia

Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), 2008, vol. 38, issue 1, pages 171-171

Abstract: ‘Before the discovery of Australia’, the book commences, ‘people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence’. The purpose of this book is to reinforce to those of us who are quantitative in our professions that sometimes a single point of data is all that is needed to disprove a long held theory – and remind us that a sample of any number of white swans does not prove the absence of black ones. ... James Dick

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