Do the Malthusian fears ever die? A note on the recent increase in food prices

Argentino Pessoa ()

Economics Bulletin, 2008, vol. 17, issue 22, pages 1-11

Abstract: Beginning with a snapshot of the recent raise in food prices, the present paper put in question the hypothesis of it be a response to the near end of resources. Examining some medium and long-run factors that explain the evolution of food production, with special focus on cereals, using data of the World Bank for the last 45 years, and a regression for a cross-section of 106 countries, we show that: a) the capacity to feed a growing population has been associated to a sustained increase in productivity, measured by the cereal yields; b) the increase in cereal yields is negatively associated to the increase in land under cereal production; c) there is large room to go on increasing cereal production and productivity in low and middle-income countries, profiting from the productivity gap that differentiate them from the high-income countries. So, the main conclusion is that the Limits to Grow’ perspective and the associated Malthusian fears have no empirical support.

Keywords: Cereal yields; food prices; population growth; limits to growth. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q0 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-12-20
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