Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

Gianna Boero (), Jeremy Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis ()

Economic Journal, 2008, vol. 118, issue 530, pages 1107-1127

Abstract: This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.

Date: 2008
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Working Paper: Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (2006)
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