An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting

Edward Nelson

Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, issue 538, pages F333-F368

Abstract: The inflation targeting regime prevailing in the UK is not the result of a change in policy maker objectives. Analysis of UK policymakers' statements demonstrates that objectives have been essentially unchanged over five decades. Instead, the crucial underpinning of UK inflation targeting is an overhaul of doctrine. This overhaul involves changes in policymakers' views regarding key IS and Phillips curve parameters. They particularly have involved whether levels terms (of the real interest rate and the output gap) appear in the curves. Contrary to conventional wisdom, changing views on the expected-inflation term in the Phillips curve do not play a role. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.

Date: 2009

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