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Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model

R. Gutiérrez, A. Nafidi and R. Gutiérrez Sánchez

Applied Energy, 2005, vol. 80, issue 2, pages 115-124

Abstract: The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.

Keywords: Stochastic Gompertz; logistic and lognormal models Natural-gas consumption Estimation and prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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