The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar
Ronald Ratti and
Joaquin Vespignani ()
Journal of Asian Economics, 2016, vol. 46, issue C, pages 71-84
We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.
Keywords: China’s money supply; Monetary model; US exchange rate; Forecasting US dollar (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E51 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:asieco:v:46:y:2016:i:c:p:71-84
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