Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy

Paul Shea

Economics Letters, 2008, vol. 99, issue 3, pages 530-533

Abstract: This paper uses the technique of Lubik and Schorfheide [Lubik, T., Schorfheide, F., 2004. Testing for indeterminacy: an application to U.S. monetary policy. The American Economic Review 94 (1), 190-217] to test for indeterminacy in a New Keynesian Model. Using real-time, instead of revised data on the output gap, the results suggest indeterminacy both before 1979 and after 1982.

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