Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz () and Herman O. Stekler ()

Economics Letters, 2010, vol. 108, issue 1, pages 28-32

Abstract: We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

Keywords: Forecast; evaluation; Federal; Reserve; Systematic; errors; Recessions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Related works:
Working Paper: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (2010)
Working Paper: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (2009)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:28-32

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