Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation

George William Evans (), Eran Guse () and Seppo Mikko Sakari Honkapohja ()

European Economic Review, 2008, vol. 52, issue 8, pages 1438-1463

Abstract: We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals.

Keywords: Adaptive; learning; Monetary; policy; Fiscal; policy; Zero; interest; rate; lower; bound; Indeterminacy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008

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Related works:
Working Paper: Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (2007)
Working Paper: Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (2007)
Working Paper: Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (2007)
Working Paper: Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation (2007)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:52:y:2008:i:8:p:1438-1463

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