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Do gasoline prices asymmetrically affect US consumers’ economic outlook?

Hamid Baghestani

Energy Economics, 2016, vol. 55, issue C, pages 247-252

Abstract: Changes in gasoline prices can affect consumer sentiment which may then influence consumption. We utilize the Michigan Surveys of Consumers data on the Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) in order to explore the dynamic relationship between US consumers’ economic outlook (ICE) and real gasoline prices (Pg) for 1993–2015. We find that ICE and ICC as well as ICE and Pg are cointegrated: ICE is positively related to ICC and negatively related to Pg in the long-run. In the short-run, ICE responds symmetrically to ICC movements but asymmetrically to Pg movements. That is, ICE remains unchanged when Pg declines but deteriorates when Pg rises.

Keywords: Energy prices; Consumer sentiment; Asymmetry; Negativity bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q4 E2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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