Changes in the global oil market
Erdenebat Bataa (),
Marwan Izzeldin and
Denise Osborn ()
Energy Economics, 2016, vol. 56, issue C, pages 161-176
Changes in the parameters of a recursively identified oil market model are examined through an iterative algorithm that tests for possible breaks in coefficients and variances. The analysis detects breaks in the coefficients of the oil production and price equations, together with volatility shifts in all three equations of the model. Coefficient changes imply an enhanced response of production to aggregate demand shocks after 1980; and that the price response to supply shocks is more persistent from the mid-1990s. All variables evidence changes in the relative contributions of individual shocks to their forecast error variances, with coefficient and volatility breaks in the first half of the 1990s being particularly important in this respect. The results show that analysts of this market should eschew constant parameter models estimated over an extended period.
Keywords: Oil price shocks; Multiple breaks; Breaks in SVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Changes in the global oil market (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:161-176
Access Statistics for this article
Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol and J. P. Weyant
More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Series data maintained by Dana Niculescu ().