On the importance of verifying forecasting results

A. Talha Yalta () and Olaf Jenal

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 25, issue 1, pages 62-73

Abstract: We discuss the various sources of error in numerical computations with the use of examples from the literature relevant to time series analysis. We also submit a case where, by manual verification, we were able to discover a plausible forecast to be erroneous due to a number of software flaws in the XLSTAT addin for Microsoft Excel. Furthermore, after discussing the alternative techniques for implementing the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology on a computer, we show that different approaches can cause considerable discrepancies in the results across different programs, and even within a single software system.

Date: 2009

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Working Paper: On the Importance of Verifying Forecasting Results (2008)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:62-73

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