The Recent Stock Market Fluctuations and Retirement Income Adequacy

Christian E. Weller ()

Eastern Economic Journal, 2006, vol. 32, issue 1, pages 67-81

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of wealth fluctuations on retirement income adequacy between 1992 and 2001. In addition, the paper estimates how financial wealth relative to income may develop in the medium to long-term. The average household was adequately prepared for retirement, even after the decline in the stock market, if it is assumed that retirement income needs fall in real terms with age. But if a fixed real level of consumption is considered for retirement income adequacy, the average household was more likely inadequately prepared for retirement, even after wealth increased dramatically in the late 1990s. Moreover, on average households can only expect to reach their peak wealth to income levels again within the next 10 to 20 years if increases in personal savings rates or rates of return are assumed. Without such changes, it is also unlikely that households will be able, on average, to reach an adequate level of retirement savings, assuming that their income needs in retirement do not decline in real terms.

Date: 2006
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