Phillips curve inflation forecasts
James H. Stock and
Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2008, vol. 53
This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and empirical results are gloomy and indicate that Phillips curve forecasts (broadly interpreted as forecasts using an activity variable) are better than other multivariate forecasts, but their performance is episodic, sometimes better than and sometimes worse than a good (not naïve) univariate benchmark. The authors provide some preliminary evidence characterizing successful forecasting episodes.
Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Unemployment; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (73) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf53/papers/stock_watson_530.pdf [302 Redirect]--> https://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf53/papers/stock_watson_530.pdf [302 Found]--> https://www.bostonfed.org/errors/error.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/economic/conf/conf53/papers/stock_watson_530.pdf)
Working Paper: Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2008:n:53:x:2
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Conference Series ; [Proceedings] from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Catherine Spozio ().