Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

2005 - 2008

from International Institute of Forecasters
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2008, issue 9

Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning pp. 5-7

Roy Batchelor

Predicting the Demand for New Products pp. 8-10

Paul Goodwin

The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies pp. 12-17

Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan

Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers pp. 18-24

Bruce Andrews, James Bennett, Lindsey Howe, Brooks Newkirk and Joseph Ogrodowczyk

Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry pp. 25-29

Carol Gebert

Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation pp. 30-32

Andreas Graefe

A Primer on Prediction Markets pp. 33-35

Joe Miles

Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages pp. 36-41

Sam Sugiyama

“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections pp. 43-48

Ira Sohn

2007, issue 8

Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies pp. 5-10

Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin

A Guide to Delphi pp. 11-16

Gene Rowe

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared pp. 17-20

Kesten Charles Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe

Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight pp. 22-24

John Boylan

Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error pp. 25-26

Thomas R. Willemain

Supply Risk and Costing Challenges pp. 26-27

Michael E. Smith

Lost Sales and Customer Service pp. 28

Scott Roy

Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries pp. 29-30

Peter M. Catt

How to Project Patient Persistency pp. 31-35

Ka Lok Lee, Peter Fader and Bruce Hardie

The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 pp. 36-40

Allan J. Lichtman

Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series pp. 41-44

Enrique de Alba and Manuel Mendoza

Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) pp. 45-46

Bill Bassin

2007, issue 7

Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example pp. 5-10

Peter Maurice Catt

An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors pp. 11-16

Roy Pearson

Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations pp. 17-22

Lauge Valentin

S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company pp. 23-27

John Mello and Terry Esper

Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues pp. 29-35

Stephen Custer and Don Miller

How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data pp. 36-40

Ellen Bonnell

The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process pp. 41-44

James Borneman

Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century pp. 45-48

Jim Hoover

Book Review of Forecasting the Retail Supply Chain, by Andre Martin, Mike Doherty, and Jeff Harrop pp. 49-51

Carolyn Allmon

Supermarket Forecasting: Check Out Three New Approaches pp. 53-55

Paul Goodwin

2007, issue 6

Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster pp. 3-10

Chris Chatfield

Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models pp. 12-15

Rob Hyndman and Andrey V. Kostenko

Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series pp. 16-20

Michael Leonard

Seasonality Shrinkage Procedures for Small Samples pp. 21-23

Dan Williams

Constant vs. Changing Seasonality pp. 24-25

Philip Hans Franses

Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing pp. 26-28

Paul Goodwin

Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation pp. 29-37

Sam Sugiyama

Book Review of Kenneth Kahn's New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach pp. 38-39

Steven Schnaars

Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE pp. 40-43

Stephan Kolassa and Wolfgang Schütz

Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives pp. 45-50

Carl E. Klarner and Stan Buchanan

2006, issue 5

Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings? pp. 3-8

J. Scott Armstrong

To Include or Exclude an Explanatory Variable: Beware of Rules of Thumb pp. 16-21

Peter Kennedy

Oliva and Watson describe how organizational biases arise from the different incentives, agendas, and blind spots of the various functional areas of a business and how they compromise forecast accuracy and disrupt the supply chain process. They present a case study-the Leitax Corporation-of how one organization successfully used consensus forecasting to manage against functional blind spots and incentive misalignments. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006 pp. 27-31

Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson

How to Predict a Movie's Success at the Box Office pp. 32-36

Ramesh Sharda and Dursun Delen

A Retrospect on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U. S. House of Representatives pp. 37-42

Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuzan

Software Reviews: Forecasting with SAP pp. 43-44

Foresight Software Editor Ulrich Kusters

The New SAP Forecasting and Replenishment Solution: Is It an Improvement over mySAP ERP? pp. 45-50

Norman Gotz and Carsten Kohler

Forecasting for WorldWide Supply Chain Processes with SAP's APO pp. 51-54

Christoph Seeger

2006, issue 4

Nano Forecasting: Forecasting Techniques for Short-Time Intervals pp. 6-10

Jay Minnucci

Forecasting Call Flow in a Direct Marketing Environment pp. 11-15

Peter Varisco

Forecasting Weekly Effects of Recurring Irregular Occurrences pp. 16-18

Dan Rickwalder

Transformation Lessons from Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.: Managing the Introduction of a Structured Forecast Process pp. 21-25

Simon Clarke

Breaking Down the Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement pp. 26-30

Mark Moon

Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Omissions in Today's Forecasting Engines and Demand-Planning Software pp. 32-35

Jim Hoover

Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demands: Look at the Entire Distribution of Demands pp. 36-38

Tom Willemain

Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand pp. 39-42

John Boylan and Aris Syntetos

Another Look at Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demand pp. 43-46

Rob Hyndman

Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts pp. 47-52

Steven Schnaars

Tips for Forecasting Semi-new products pp. 53-56

Bill Tonetti

Book Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2204) pp. 57-59

Anirvan Banerji

2006, issue 3

Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 pp. 5-9

Allan Lichtman

The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 pp. 10-13

J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred Cuzan

Measuring the Efficiency of an Informal Forecasting Process pp. 16-21

Robert Samohyl

Forecasting as a Business Process Diagnostic pp. 22-26

Mario Sepulveda-Guzman, Michael Smith and George Mechling

Increasing the Credibility of Your Forecasts: 7 Suggestions pp. 27-32

Roy Pearson

Credit Scoring: The State of the Art pp. 33-37

Lyn Thomas

Incorrect Nonlinear Trend Curves in Excel pp. 39-43

Rick Hesse,

The Unreliability of Excel's Statistical Procedures pp. 44-45

Bruce McCullough

On the Use and Abuse of Microsoft Excel pp. 46-47

Paul Fields

Book Review of Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market, by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett (1999) pp. 48-50

Roy Batchelor