Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models

Rob Hyndman () and Andrey V. Kostenko

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2007, issue 6, pages 12-15

Abstract: Authors Rob Hyndman and Andrey Kostenko discuss the bare minimum data requirements for fitting three common types of seasonal models: regression with seasonal dummies, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. Achieving the requisite minimum numbers, however, does not ensure adequate estimates of seasonality. The amount of additional data required depends on the amount of noise (random variation) in the data. Unfortunately, there are no simple rules about sample size, and the authors note that published tables on sample size requirements are overly simplified. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

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