Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues

Stephen Custer and Don Miller

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2007, issue 7, pages 29-35

Abstract: When a major disruption such as 9/11 occurs, managers don’t know what the future holds and may have to put off important decisions while awaiting future data. In many cases, post-disruption conditions are unprecedented, and neither management’s prior experience nor traditional extrapolation methods are of much value. Steve and Don propose a new procedure, decision-directed forecasting, that provides a rational basis for evaluating decision options as new data become available. The decision maker using it is less prone to making a premature decision and better able to recognize when the post-disruption data support a decision option. They use the dramatic fall in Las Vegas gaming revenue after 9/11 to illustrate their approach. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.forecasters.org/foresight/purchase.html

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting from International Institute of Forecasters
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Pam Stroud ().