Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

Kesten Charles Green (), J. Scott Armstrong () and Andreas Graefe ()

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2007, issue 8, pages 17-20

Abstract: The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

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Related works:
Working Paper: Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)
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