How to Project Patient Persistency

Ka Lok Lee, Peter Fader and Bruce Hardie

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2007, issue 8, pages 31-35

Abstract: Pharmaceutical companies face the problem of how to project the persistency patterns of patients who are taking their manufactured medications – i.e., how to determine the percentage of patients who will continue to refill a given prescription on a timely basis. The authors have developed a probability model with a well-grounded story for the dropout process. The model, which can be implemented in a simple Excel spreadsheet, provides remarkably accurate forecasts as well as other useful diagnostics about patient persistency. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

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