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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

James E. Neumann (), Kerry A. Emanuel (), Sai Ravela (), Lindsay C. Ludwig () and Caroleen Verly ()
Additional contact information
James E. Neumann: Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Kerry A. Emanuel: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Sai Ravela: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Lindsay C. Ludwig: Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Caroleen Verly: Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA

Sustainability, 2015, vol. 7, issue 6, pages 1-20

Abstract: This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

Keywords: sea level rise; storm surge; tropical cyclone risk; flood risk; South East Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 O13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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