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The Application of a Grey Markov Model in Forecasting the Errors of EIA’s Projections in Gas Production and Energy Intensity

Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh (), Hamidreza Mostafaei () and Shaghayegh Kordnoori ()
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Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh: Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Hamidreza Mostafaei: Department of statistics Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch & Department of Economics Energy, Institute for International Energy Studies ( Affiliated to Ministry of Petroleum)
Shaghayegh Kordnoori: Statistics expert of Research Institute for ICT, Tehran, Iran

Hyperion Economic Journal, 2013, vol. 1, issue 3, pages 9-17

Abstract: Grey system theory looks for realistic patterns based on modeling with a few available data. In this paper, a Grey-Markov prediction model which is the combination of the GM(1,1) and Markov model was studied; Moreover, its applications in energy system were presented. The average errors of Energy Information Administration’s predictions for Natural Gas production and Energy intensity from 1985 to 2008 and 1985 to 2007 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. Comparing with GM(1,1) prediction model, we showed that the Grey- Markov prediction model improves the forecast accuracy.

Keywords: Grey Theory; Grey-Markov; EIA; gas production; energy intensity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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