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Combined Forecasts of Inflation Rate in Romania Using AFTER Algorithm

Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu)

Hyperion Economic Journal, 2015, vol. 3, issue 2, 32-37

Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to construct some combined predictions for the inflation rate in Romania, by using only the individual forecasts of two experts. The predictions provided during 2004-2014 were used in constructing the new forecasts. Several schemes of combination were employed: equally weighted scheme, a scheme with weights that weights depend on the inverse of averages square forecast errors and the Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting (AFTER) algorithm. The combined predictions based on these schemes improved the degree of accuracy of the forecasts made by the second expert during 2010-2013, but only an empirical combination based on the weights from 2009 improved also the first expert predictions for inflation rate in Romania.

Keywords: forecasts; Aggregated Forecast Through Exponential Re-weighting; inflation rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C60 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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