An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses
H. Bayram Irhan (),
Nur Dilbaz Alacahan and
Levent Korap ()
Additional contact information
H. Bayram Irhan: Gelisim University
Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, 2011, vol. 14, issue 1, 38-61
In this paper, the determinants of the Turkish trade balance are tried to be analyzed in an empirical modelling approach. For this purpose, the contemporaneous ARDL-based bounds testing has been used to examine the existence of a long run co-integration relationship between the variables of our interest. The estimation results indicate that real exchange rate depreciations improves the trade balance in a strong and significant way, that domestic real income affects the trade balance negatively, and that trade balance is strongly improved due to an increase in foreign real income. No significant effect of crude oil prices can be observed on trade balance. The error correction modeling gives results in line with the long run findings of the co-integration analysis.
Keywords: Trade Balance; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach; Turkish Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F10 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: An empirical model for the Turkish trade balance: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing analyses (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:14:y:2011:i:1:p:38-61
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal from Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Kutluk Kagan Sumer ().