Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries

George Athanasopoulos (), Heather M. Anderson and Farshid Vahid ()

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2007, vol. 22, issue 1, pages 63-87

Abstract: This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2007
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.935 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)
http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2007-v22.1/ Supporting data files and programs (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www3.intersci ... e.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Econometrics is edited by M. Hashem Pesaran

More articles in Journal of Applied Econometrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Series data maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().